On the sidelines of the World Bank/IMF meetings in Bangkok, Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele warned that restoring Nigeria’s fuel subsidy could see the naira collapse to N4,000 per US dollar. The claim sparked immediate backlash from opposition parties and economic experts who demanded a clear explanation of the assumptions behind the projection.
Opposition parties call the forecast “unfounded”
The All Progressives Congress‑led government’s stance was challenged by the African Democratic Congress, the Social Democratic Party and the Nigeria Democratic Party, all of whom have pledged to reinstate the subsidy if elected. “We cannot subscribe to seeing Nigerians use all their entitlements and earnings to buy fuel due to harsh economic policies,” said APM National Secretary Ayodele Adebayo in a statement to Vanguard. He accused the administration of “paying fuel subsidy through the back door” and dismissed Oyedele’s warning as a “subtle blackmail.”
National Publicity Secretary of the NDC, Osa Director, also slammed the minister’s remarks, questioning why the country’s refineries are not operating and why the government has mortgaged large amounts of crude oil to secure foreign loans. “If these issues are addressed, the doomsday prediction would not be necessary,” he said.
Experts demand evidence and a sound economic model
Petroleum economist Prof. Wumi Iledare cautioned that “magnitude cannot be established by assertion alone.” He noted that while subsidy restoration could increase fiscal pressure, borrowing, foreign‑exchange demand and smuggling, the claim that it would push the naira to N4,000 per dollar should be treated as a risk scenario, not an inevitable outcome. “The naira is influenced by a range of factors – foreign‑exchange supply and demand, crude‑oil receipts, domestic production, capital flows, reserves, monetary policy and investor confidence,” he added.
Clifford Egbomeade, an economic and communications expert, also called for the minister to disclose the assumptions and economic model underpinning his projection. “The claim that subsidy restoration would push the naira to N4,000 per US dollar requires evidence and clearly stated assumptions,” he said.
Opposition leaders highlighted the impact of higher petrol prices on transport, food distribution and household welfare, arguing that any savings from subsidy removal must be channeled into productive investment. The debate underscores the broader policy dilemma over fiscal sustainability, market efficiency and public welfare in Nigeria’s ongoing fuel subsidy discussion.
<small>Source: Vanguard News — read the original story there.</small>
