Economic and policy experts have criticized President Bola Tinubu’s target of increasing Nigeria’s electricity generation to 10,000 megawatts (MW) by 2031, warning that the goal is unattainable without urgent action to resolve transmission bottlenecks, gas supply constraints, and legacy debts. The reservations emerged as the President renewed his pledge to provide reliable electricity, asserting that the current power sector privatisation arrangement is failing to deliver results.
Tinubu made these commitments at an All Progressives Congress (APC) campaign rally in Dutse, Jigawa State, where he stated, “We will reduce the cost of living. We will provide reliable power, not the whole privatisation that is not working.” The President further pledged to strengthen the country’s industrial base, support nano, small-scale, and medium-scale businesses, and expand job opportunities for real income earners if re-elected in 2027.
Concerns regarding the feasibility of the 10,000MW target were raised during a panel discussion in Abuja titled *From Reforms to Prosperity*, which examined the implementation of the party’s 2027 presidential election manifesto. Esege Ebie Esege, Head of Delivery at the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Policy Coordination, described the target as a "tall order" given that Nigeria’s current generation level stands at approximately 4,000MW, occasionally reaching 5,000MW during peak periods.
“That target of 10,000 megawatts by 2031 is indeed a tall order. It’s very optimistic, considering where we are now. We are doing about 4,000 megawatts, and in the peak period we have gone up to 5,000,” Esege said.
Esege emphasized that increasing generation without corresponding investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure would not guarantee improved supply. He noted that the completion of ongoing transmission projects and the resolution of legacy debts are critical, as the national grid currently lacks the capacity to transmit additional power to consumers. He argued that all segments of the sector must be strengthened simultaneously to ensure that new generating capacity translates into reliable electricity for households and businesses.
Policy and strategy expert Prof. Okey Ikechukwu warned that Nigeria’s economic ambitions, including a six per cent annual growth target by 2031, would remain unrealised without a fundamental improvement in electricity supply. Describing the power crisis as a national emergency, Ikechukwu stated, “Without power, every other thing is a pipe dream.” He urged the government to address practical challenges facing citizens, insisting that economic reforms would have limited impact unless they resulted in increased productivity and reduced operating costs.
The debate comes amid persistent power shortages, with Power Minister Joseph Tegbe recently attributing outages to maintenance at the Egbin Power Station, gas supply constraints, and sabotage of transmission lines. While Tinubu had previously declared that Nigerians should not re-elect him if he failed to deliver adequate power, the current administration faces scrutiny over the structural and operational difficulties that continue to limit electricity delivery despite successive interventions.
<small>Source: The Sun Nigeria — read the original story there.</small>
