As the 2027 presidential election cycle approaches in Nigeria, political discourse is increasingly dominated by the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, and his pledge to reverse the removal of petrol subsidies implemented by President Bola Tinubu’s administration. While this promise has generated significant initial enthusiasm, particularly regarding the prospect of lowering energy costs, critics argue that the candidate may not possess a clear roadmap for restoring sustainable, affordable energy. Instead, opponents suggest that the campaign is leveraging ethno-regional sentiments against the current administration, inadvertently reawakening the historical North-South dichotomy in Nigerian politics.
Critics of the current economic trajectory argue that the removal of petrol subsidies is merely one component of a broader neo-liberal economic framework that has led to the defunding of public schools, the commercialization of healthcare, and the privatization of basic utilities. To reverse these trends, they contend that a shift toward a state-capitalist model is necessary, where the government actively participates in the means of production to fund social services. However, Atiku Abubakar, who served as Vice President and head of the National Economic Council between 1999 and 2007, is viewed by some as a champion of these very neo-liberal orthodoxies. During his tenure, he presided over significant privatization exercises and advocated for policies such as the floatation of the naira and the privatization of the state-owned oil company, NNPC.
Without repudiating neo-liberalism... any promise to restore subsidy on petrol is more a political promise than an economic policy proposition.
Analysts suggest that for Atiku’s pledge to be realistic and sustainable, it would require a comprehensive repudiation of the prevailing economic orthodoxy rather than a selective policy change. The argument posits that both Atiku and President Tinubu adhere to similar economic philosophies, meaning that restoring subsidies without abandoning the broader neo-liberal framework is akin to a fundamental contradiction. Consequently, the mass support Atiku is garnering, particularly in northern Nigeria, may be driven less by his economic promises and more by ethno-religious solidarity among the Muslim North, which constitutes a large voting demographic.
Proponents of a united Nigeria warn that the quadrennial attempt by the North to use its numerical strength to monopolize the presidency poses an existential danger to the country’s stability. Citing the established convention of power rotation between the former northern and southern protectorates, they argue that the period between 2023 and 2031 is the turn of the South. If the North is dissatisfied with President Tinubu, they are urged to consider other southern candidates who may offer viable alternatives to the current economic policies.
Among these alternatives, Prince Adewole Adebayo, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate from southern Nigeria, has pledged to reduce the price of petrol from over N1,400 to N200. Critics argue that if the primary desire of voters is the restoration of subsidies, Adebayo’s clear-cut alternative to neo-liberal orthodoxy should command more support in the North than Atiku’s pledge. While it is acknowledged that President Tinubu’s reforms have worsened socio-economic conditions, the article notes that these policies are products of a national consensus in economic neo-liberalism to which Atiku himself subscribed and campaigned for in 2023.
<small>Source: The Sun Nigeria — read the original story there.</small>
