Maria Ramirez Uribe
Maria Ramirez Uribe
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Americans' Social Security benefits will have to be cut by roughly a quarter in six years due to depleted funds, according to a June 9 report from the Social Security Board of Trustees. That's months sooner than the group had estimated in 2025.
For years, the trustees and experts have been warning about Social Security's unstable financial footing. An aging population, low birth rates and worsening income inequality have driven the program to pay out more in benefits than it takes in from taxes.
"The program has been paying out more in benefits, more than it takes in in revenues, and that creates the financing gap that can't go on forever," said Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
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But the sooner-than-expected shortfall was driven in part by President Donald Trump's tax and spending cut bill and his restrictive immigration policies, the trustees said.
The six-year timeline for Social Security's insolvency means senators elected during the upcoming November midterm elections will likely be forced to vote on changes to the program, experts told PBS News.
"When we cast our votes, we're electing the leaders who are going to decide the future of this program," said Kathleen Romig, senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
It's been more than 40 years since Congress enacted major changes to the program. In 1983 during a solvency crisis, Congress passed the Social Security Amendments, which in part gradually increased the retirement age from 65 up to 67 for people born in 1960 and later.
"We can't afford to continue a system that was built almost a century ago and hasn't been changed significantly," Akabas said. "We really need to modernize the system for the economy that we have today, and that's the way that we can make it sustainable for the future."
Here's what to know about Social Security's future.
Every year the Social Security Board of Trustees submits a report to Congress with an update on the financial status of the program. Social Security needs enough money to pay the program's beneficiaries and to cover its administrative costs.
In 2025, Social Security's retirement fund earned $1.2 billion, mainly from the 185 million people who paid payroll taxes to Social Security. But the program, which paid benefits to more than 56 million people, cost $1.4 billion. The program paid out more than it brought in.
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For years, the Social Security trust fund has been supplementing spending that is not covered by the money coming in from taxes. But the trust fund reserves are running out. The 2026 report revised that depletion to late 2032. The trustees reported that, as of that year, the program will only have enough money to pay 78% of benefits.
The report's updated deadline was influenced by three factors.
The Social Security solvency deadline could move up further in next year's report, said Nancy Altman, president of advocacy group Social Security Works.
The report relies on 2025 data, before the U.S. war in Iran started. Social Security benefits are adjusted based on the cost of living, so higher inflation could lead to the program paying more in benefits than it did last year.
Another year of strict immigration policies also will continue to affect Social Security's solvency. The trustees' assume immigration levels will rise after Trump leaves office, Romig said, but that isn't a given.
That assumption "obscures the reality that if we're going down a path with really draconian immigration policy that lasts longer than just a couple more years, that has very serious consequences for Social Security," she said.
Economic policy groups have long suggested policy changes that would prevent Social Security from becoming insolvent. Despite several lawmakers introducing legislation, Congress hasn't acted. Any solution has to have bipartisan buy-in to bypass the Senate's filibuster.
"The policy is actually quite straightforward," Altman said. "It's the politics that are difficult."
"We have reached a point now where it is almost politically infeasible for the two sides to come together around a package that actually avoids the depletion of Social Security's primary trust fund," Akabas said.
Congress has three main approaches it could deploy to offset Social Security's imbalance, and none have widespread bipartisan buy-in: reduce the amount of money coming out of Social Security, increase the amount of money coming in or a mixture of both.
Congress could cut benefits either by decreasing the amount of money people are paid or by raising the retirement age.
To earn more money, Congress could raise taxes, increase Social Security's maximum taxable income or implement taxes on income not coming from wages. Currently, income from wages above $184,500 or income not from wages, such as investments, cannot be taxed for Social Security.
These two factors, which have been exacerbated by widening wealth inequality, have worsened Social Security's insolvency crisis, the experts PBS News spoke with said.
There is a shrinking pool of money for Social Security to draw from as more of the country's earnings cannot be taxed by the program, Akabas said.
However, just making these changes wouldn't be enough to immediately prevent benefit cuts.
"When policymakers make reforms to the program, they're also going to have to consider how they address the fact that even with reforms that they put in place, the trust fund is likely to go into the red in about 2032," Akabas said.
Most changes to Social Security would likely take time to phase in, he said. In the interim, Congress would likely have to allow for Social Security to borrow money to pay beneficiaries.
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<small>Source: PBS NewsHour</small>
