- Traders on prediction market platform Polymarket think it's likely that SpaceX will rise in its public market debut Friday, and see high odds it will close with a market capitalization of more than $2 trillion.
- SpaceX would enter a club of just five other U.S. companies that boast a market value above $2 trillion.
SpaceX is set to debut on the Nasdaq on Friday, and traders on prediction market platform Polymarket are confident shares will pop.
The Elon Musk-led rocket company will is expected to price at
$135 per share, already giving it a market value of $1.77 trillion. But traders think there's a high probability it'll zoom well north of there on irs first day of trading.
There's an 84% chance that SpaceX will close above $1.8 trillion in market cap, according to Polymarket traders. Odds that SpaceX will surpass $2 trillion stand at 69%.
Based on an expected initial market cap of $1.77 trillion, a capitalization of roughly $2 trillion would equate to a 13% rally in SpaceX Friday. Pre-IPO
perpetual futures on Hyperliquid indicate that SpaceX could jump more than 20% in its first day of trading.
Traders are more that SpaceX will close with a market value above $2.2 trillion, giving it less than a 50-50 chance.
SpaceX $2 trillion would also put it ahead of chip giant
Broadcom's valuation of $1.85 trillion. Even at the expected initial valuation of $1.77 trillion, SpaceX would prove larger than Musk's electrical vehicle flagship. Tesla's market value was about $1.72 trillion late Thursday, according to FactSet data.<small>Source: CNBC</small>
Business
SpaceX to close above $2 trillion market cap on its debut, prediction market traders say
CNBC
June 11, 2026
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