David Lieb, Associated Press
David Lieb, Associated Press
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A no-holds-barred bout of partisan redistricting has been won by Republicans. Now it's up to voters to decide whether it matters for control of Congress.
Republicans could net about 10 additional U.S. House seats in the November elections if redrawn voting districts perform as they were intended. The question is whether that's enough for the GOP to hold on to a majority in the chamber, where Democrats need to gain only a few seats to take control.
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Political trends and historic patterns favor Democrats. President Donald Trump's approval ratings are negative. And the incumbent's party has lost House seats in every midterm election over the past two decades.
This election season already has been unusual. Voting districts typically are redrawn only after a census at the start of each decade. But Trump urged Republicans last summer to redraw congressional districts to their advantage to try to prevent losses in the 2026 midterms.
WATCH: Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the midterm outlook following redistricting legal battles
Since then, Republicans think they could win as many as 16 additional seats from new House maps enacted in eight states — Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana and Alabama. Democrats, whose counterattack faced several setbacks, think they could win up to six additional seats from new districts in California and Utah.
Nearly 145 million people — about two of every five U.S. residents — live in states with new congressional districts for this election.
READ MORE: Midterm redistricting has placed millions in new voting districts. Here's where 6 state efforts stand
Yet the mid-decade redistricting battle didn't go as far as it could have.
Republicans in Kansas and Democrats in Illinois both rebuffed party pushes to take up redistricting. In Republican-led Indiana and South Carolina and Democratic-led Maryland, new congressional districts passed the state House but ultimately died in the state Senate. The Virginia Supreme Court invalidated new voter-approved districts that could have helped Democrats win up to four additional seats. And the U.S. Supreme Court set aside a lower court order that could have helped Democrats gain a congressional seat in New York.
Here's a look at the states with new U.S. House maps:
Current map: 13 Democrats, 25 Republicans
New map: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott signed a revised House map into law last August that could help Republicans win five additional seats. Democrats think they could still win some of those seats.
READ MORE: Why Texas' redistricting plan isn't a sure bet
Current map: two Democrats, six Republicans
New map: Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe signed a revised House map into law last September that could help Republicans win an additional seat by reshaping a Democratic-held district based in Kansas City. Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins has until Aug. 4 — the date of Missouri's primaries — to decide whether to reject an initiative petition seeking a statewide vote on the map.
READ MORE: Trump's redistricting push falters in South Carolina Senate but notches a win in Missouri's top court
Current map: four Democrats, 10 Republicans
New map: The Republican-led General Assembly gave final approval in October to revised districts that could help Republicans win an additional seat.
READ MORE: What to expect in North Carolina's midterm primaries
Current map: five Democrats, 10 Republicans
New map: A bipartisan panel composed primarily of Republicans voted in October to approve revised House districts that improve Republicans' chances of winning two additional seats. Democrats think they could still win those seats.
READ MORE: Takeaways from Indiana, Ohio and Michigan: Trump's flex pays off and Democrats win special election
Current map: 43 Democrats, nine Republicans
New map: Voters in November approved revised House districts drawn by the Democratic-led Legislature that could help Democrats win five additional seats.
READ MORE: Democrats redrew California's map to counter Trump. The primary tests whether it pays off for them
Current map: no Democrats, four Republicans
New map: A judge in November imposed revised House districts that could help Democrats win a seat in the Salt Lake City area.
READ MORE: Democrats try new tactic to win a House seat in Utah — running as progressives in a red state
Current map: eight Democrats, 20 Republicans
New map: Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis signed revised House districts in May that improve the GOP's chances of winning four additional seats. Legal challenges are pending.
READ MORE: Florida legislature approves new congressional map intended to boost Republicans in midterms
Current map: one Democrat, eight Republicans
New map: Republican Gov. Bill Lee signed new House districts in May that improve the GOP's chances of winning an additional seat by carving up the lone Democratic-held seat, a majority-Black district based in Memphis. Legal challenges are pending.
WATCH: News Wrap: Tennessee passes new congressional map, sparking protest
Current map: two Democrats, four Republicans
New map: Republican Gov. Jeff Landry signed off on new House districts in May that improve Republican chances of winning an additional seat by eliminating a majority-Black district held by a Democrat that the U.S. Supreme Court struck down as an illegal racial gerrymander.
WATCH: Louisiana's redistricting rush ignites debate over race and representation
Current map: two Democrats, five Republicans
New map: The U.S. Supreme Court in June allowed the state to use a congressional map approved by Republican state lawmakers that improves the GOP's chances of winning an additional seat by reshaping a Democratic-held district that has a large number of Black voters.
READ MORE: Alabama asks Supreme Court to allow use of congressional map helping GOP, despite racial bias ruling
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<small>Source: PBS NewsHour</small>
