- Strait of Hormuz shipping is unlikely to rebound quickly to pre-war levels, as companies grapple with unclear ceasefire terms, higher insurance costs and mine risks.
- Iran is set to continue to exert its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint to push for greater control over vessel traffic, strategists say.
- Oil prices have eased back toward $70 a barrel, but analysts warn the market may be underestimating lingering shipping risks and the demand to rebuild depleted inventories.
Oil prices have fallen back sharply to near pre-war levels over recent weeks in response to a fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran, and diplomatic efforts to bring the conflict to a lasting conclusion.
However, commodity strategists warned Monday that prices could reflect an overly optimistic stance from markets, which are underestimating the scale of persistent supply-side challenges.
Analysts argue that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to swiftly return to pre-war levels, even after a pickup in activity following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, as Tehran seeks to exert leverage over the critical chokepoint.
Nikos Petrakakos, managing director of investments at Tufton Investment Management, said many shipping companies remain wary of sending vessels back through the key energy chokepoint, citing uncertainty over the peace framework, lingering concerns over sea mines and elevated war-risk insurance premiums.
"Even though there is some more motion going on, in general, we're nowhere near being back to where it was," Petrakakos told CNBC's "Europe Early Edition" on Monday.
International benchmark
Brent crude futures were trading at $72.45 per barrel as of 8:42 a.m. ET on Monday, compared to a wartime-high of over $188 per barrel in late April.
Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, said markets may be underestimating how far shipping conditions remain from their pre-war norm.
While vessels that had been trapped are now transiting the Strait, she said the bigger challenge is persuading shippers to send vessels back in. "Shipping costs are incredibly high right now, and you still can't find enough shippers willing to go back out in there," Sen told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
Strategists say a formal toll system for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to emerge, but they warned that Tehran may continue to push for some degree of control over shipping through the waterway.
Petrakakos said arrangements around possible tolls or coordination with Iran remain largely ad hoc, with most shipping companies avoiding direct engagement because of sanctions risk.
Proper coordination with Iran "is not happening," he said, describing the issue as a "slippery slope" for companies that could expose themselves to penalties later. Some operators, he added, appear to be taking a more opaque approach, including switching off transponders to obscure vessel locations.
"Before this war, Iran really had no power or say over what goes through the Strait of Hormuz," Petrakakos said. "That is a status quo that's changed going forward. I don't see Iran going back to where it was before."
He said Iran will continue trying to push for "some sort of coordination… pretending as if it's some sort of canal like the Suez Canal or the Panama Canal, and try to have some control over how the vessels pass through."
But Sen said that an official toll mechanism would be unacceptable to Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Western companies, noting that the fees issue is tied more to Iran's need to repatriate funds for its post-war reconstruction.
"Iran is using its leverage aggressively to make the point that they are the ones that will control shipping, especially through that southern lane," Sen said. "Western companies are simply not going to be allowed to pay that toll."
While vessels that were stranded in or near the Strait may gradually exit, Petrakakos said insurers are still a long way from being comfortable enough to provide cover for ships entering the Strait to pick up cargo.
"I think insurance will only really start moving in, I would say, months," he said, adding that it takes time for insurers to become comfortable before lowering premiums, highlighting the issue with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
"They really will need to see that this is not just an agreement on paper," he added. "They'll need to see that this is being implemented and actually staying together for a while before we see full normalization of traffic and reduction of premiums."
Petrakakos also cautioned against assuming that oil and gas vessels would automatically be prioritized through the Strait. Other cargoes, including high-value finished goods carried on container ships, may also be viewed as strategically or commercially important, he said.
Dry bulk vessels, which typically carry lower-value commodities, may have a different risk calculus, he added, because insurance costs could represent a smaller share of the overall cargo value.
Aldo Spanjer, head of commodity strategy at BNP Paribas Markets 360, said Iran's leverage in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key issue for oil markets.
"My base case, eventually, is that Iran can give up control of Hormuz — in the sense of formal control, the toll system," Spanjer told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday. "The toll system is about income. You can do that in a different way."
For oil markets, the focus has shifted from immediate supply disruption to the question of how quickly depleted inventories can be rebuilt, Spanjer said.
"The narrative that's come into the market is: 'How are we going to backfill all the stocks we've taken out?'" he said. "Every importer in the world is going to build higher stocks."
Spanjer said his year-end target remains $80, arguing that additional supply could be absorbed by buyers looking to rebuild inventories.
"If this MoU stays, and we get more flows into the market, I think we rebound a little bit, because there's enough absorption capacity for the barrels," he said. "That implies a relatively range-bound market for me."
Looking further ahead, Spanjer said he sees oil trading in a $75 to $85 range in 2027. Once inventories have been rebuilt, he said, upside risks are likely to be more limited and the market could return to a more backwardated structure whereby spot prices trade below prices for contracts maturing in the future.
"I can't be above $85 because who's going to fill stocks above $85?" he said. "I don't really want to be below $75 because there's still a lot of opportunistic buying in the market."<small>Source: CNBC</small>
Business
Oil prices near pre-war levels — but persistent supply risks could spark a rebound, analysts warn
CNBC
June 29, 2026
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