- Over the last week, chances that the California billionaire tax will appear on November's ballot dropped from 88% to 35.5% on prediction markets platform Kalshi.
- The plunge comes after news reports said Gov. Gavin Newsom is trying to stop the billionaire tax proposal from appearing on November's ballot before a June 25 deadline.
Chances that a proposed billionaire tax will appear on California's ballot dropped from 88% to 35.5% over the last week on prediction markets platform Kalshi.
The proposal, backed by the Service Employees International Union – United Healthcare Workers West, calls for a one-time 5% tax on a billionaire's net worth.
The union
argues that taxing billionaires will support the state's healthcare system after massive federal funding cuts.
"The tax would be paid only by Californians worth more than $1 billion — which is about 200 people who hold a combined wealth of $2 trillion," the union's
website states.
The union added it submitted more than 1.5 million signatures from California voters to have the billionaire tax act on the ballot. Only 875,000 signatures are required.
Newsom's reported opposition to the billionaire tax measure comes as he's seriously considering the presidential election. On Monday, the governor accused President Donald Trump of ordering the
Department of Justice to investigate him and his wife.
In a post on X, Newsom said that Trump was driven to target him because of the fact that "I am considering
running for President."
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.<small>Source: CNBC</small>
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Odds that a proposed billionaire tax appears on California ballots plunge on prediction markets
CNBC
June 16, 2026
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