- The Dow Jones consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to drop off significantly from May, when job growth totaled 172,000, more than double the outlook.
- Meanwhile, Kalshi traders see less than a 60% chance that job growth will surpass 100,000 and about 42% odds that it will cross over 125,000 jobs.
Kalshi traders are differing with Dow Jones consensus on Thursday's job report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Dow Jones consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to drop off significantly from May, when
job growth totaled 172,000, more than double the outlook. This month's report is expected to show growth of just 118,000. Kalshi traders in May had indicated a strong chance the final report would top the forecast.
However, Kalshi traders see less than a 60% chance that
job growth will surpass 100,000 and about 42% odds that it will cross over 125,000 jobs. The contract will resolve after the numbers are verified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Kalshi traders have varied with their views on the economy.
After Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week said the U.S. economy can achieve 3% growth
this year, Kalshi traders assigned only 14.2% odds that gross domestic product would rise between 2.6% and 3%.
Traders on the platform seem to be more in agreement about Dow Jones' consensus on unemployment rate.
Traders give a 71% chance the rate will go over 4.2%, but just a 30% probability that it would be above the current rate of 4.3%, which also is the Dow Jones consensus forecast.
Wall Street also anticipates hourly earnings to increase by 3.5% annually compared to May's report of 3.4%. Meanwhile average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, roughly in line with the May total.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.<small>Source: CNBC</small>
Business
Kalshi traders expect this week's jobs report will disappoint Wall Street outlook
CNBC
June 29, 2026
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