A "Super" El Niño May Be Coming — And Scientists Warn It Could Be the Worst in 155 Years

Climate scientists are raising urgent alarms about an El Niño event that may be forming in the Pacific Ocean at extraordinary speed — one that some models suggest could become the most powerful since the catastrophic 1877 event, more than 155 years ago. The warning comes as the world is already experiencing record heat, with January through March 2026 having been the driest on record across the United States, and Europe enduring its second-warmest March ever recorded.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now gives an 82% probability that El Niño conditions emerge between May and July 2026, with a 96% chance of the event persisting through the winter of 2026–27. More alarming still: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has moved in its May update to a 100% probability of a super El Niño forming by November — a level of oceanic heat not seen since 1877. Central Pacific surface temperatures are projected to exceed 3°C above average at the event's peak.

The speed of development has caught forecasters off guard. In early March 2026, models showed a 22% chance of a super El Niño. By late April, that figure had jumped to 80%. The acceleration is being driven by a surge of warm water known as a Kelvin wave that pushed heat to the Pacific surface far ahead of the schedule projected just weeks earlier.

El Niño is a natural, cyclical warming of the equatorial Pacific that disrupts global weather patterns. There have been only five "super" El Niño events since 1950 — the most recent from 2015 to 2016. But crucially, the 2026 event is forming on top of a planet that is already significantly warmer due to decades of human-caused climate change. That means any heat released from the ocean is added to a higher baseline than in any previous cycle. A December 2025 study found that a super El Niño year can trigger "climate regime shifts" — sudden and persistent changes in climate systems that pose severe threats to ecosystems and human welfare.

The projected impacts are sweeping. Drought and flooding are expected to intensify across countries bordering the Pacific, including Australia, Indonesia, Peru, Ecuador, and the Philippines. The Amazon, already stressed by wildfires and logging, faces heightened drought risk. Across the continental United States, above-average temperatures and more frequent severe thunderstorms are expected through summer, with the Southwest particularly exposed. A warmer-than-average winter is forecast for much of the northern U.S. and western Canada. In the Atlantic, El Niño typically suppresses hurricane activity — but fuels more storms in the central and eastern Pacific, raising threats to Hawaii and the Southwest.

On a global scale, climate scientists warn the 2026–2027 period could shatter existing temperature records — potentially pushing global warming past the 1.5°C guardrail established in the Paris Agreement, a threshold scientists say carries cascading consequences including permafrost thaw, accelerated sea level rise, and extreme weather events of a kind that have no modern precedent.